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Wednesday, April 23, 2025

UNM-Gallup professor contributes to climate change paper on near-term forecasting

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Garnett S. Stokes, President - The University of New Mexico Board of Regents | University of New Mexico

Garnett S. Stokes, President - The University of New Mexico Board of Regents | University of New Mexico

A University of New Mexico-Gallup professor has contributed to a paper advocating for a new approach to environmental decision-making. The paper, published in the December 2024 issue of "Nature Climate Change," emphasizes the need for data-driven strategies that incorporate equity.

Associate Professor Antoinette Abeyta, along with 22 other members of the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI), co-authored "Near-Term Ecological Forecasting for Climate Change Action." This work underscores the use of ecological forecasts as a tool to anticipate ecosystem changes and their effects on communities.

The EFI explained, “These forecasts can then be used to make decisions to mitigate environmental impacts and build a future that is climate resilient.” While past forecasts often focused on distant future dates such as 2100, the paper stresses the importance of short-term forecasting due to the current impacts of climate change. EFI highlighted the need for forecasts over weeks and months, emphasizing the urgency of such measures.

Drawing a parallel to meteorology, Abeyta noted, “It’s important to understand the broad strokes of how the planet will change, but humans don’t think on those scales, so having short term forecasts is important.”

The paper also addresses the necessity of focusing on equity, workforce development, and partnerships beyond traditional academic circles. As a minority-serving institution, UNM-Gallup's involvement in EFI since around 2020 highlights its role in addressing these issues. Abeyta emphasized the gap in environmental data science education at community colleges and tribal colleges, areas that often lack resources available at more prominent institutions.

“There’s a tremendous lack of training at community colleges and tribal serving colleges,” Abeyta remarked, pointing out the vulnerabilities of low-income communities and communities of color to climate change. These communities lack access to critical training in environmental issues.

By examining data science training models, Abeyta aims to identify assumptions that may not fit the circumstances of rural community college students. Limited access to technology in these areas poses challenges, but Abeyta is committed to providing accessible training.

“We want to teach these tools in a way that anyone can access them,” Abeyta stated. The goal is to empower individuals to become advocates within their communities.

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