ABQ Times

The number of older New Mexicans will continue to increase in the coming decades while total population change will remain flat. Stability will be due in large part to international migration, which will offset declining births and increasing deaths, according to updated population projections by demographers from the University of New Mexico Geospatial & Population Studies (UNM-GPS), which functions as the State Demographers Office.

New Mexico’s current population of 2.11 million is expected to grow slowly until around 2035 when the total population will top out at 2.16 million. That’s an increase of around 50,000 people or 2.5% of the state population. The state population is then projected to begin an equally slow and steady decline until 2050 and beyond.

“We are projecting some growth for New Mexico in the coming years, but the increases are small enough that minor shifts in births, deaths, and especially migration trends could easily push growth up or result in years of decline,” New Mexico State Demographer and UNM-GPS Director Robert Rhatigan said.

New Mexico’s population is aging. The number of New Mexicans aged 65 and older is expected to increase by over 200,000 over the next 20 years, a rise of more than 28%. By 2040, nearly 23% of New Mexicans will be 65 and older. In the 2020 Census, seniors accounted for 18% of the state’s population while in 2010 that figure was just 13%.

At the same time, the number of New Mexicans aged 85 and older will more than double over the next two decades from around 40,000 in 2020 to over 85,000 in 2040.

“Our population is experiencing a rapidly changing age structure. New Mexico will have a greater share of seniors in the coming years while also experiencing a decline in the number of children and emerging adults,” UNM-GPS Senior Research Scientist Dr. Jacqueline Miller said.

The reasons for New Mexico’s aging are clear: More baby boomers are reaching retirement age each year and they’re living longer. At the same time, New Mexicans are having fewer children each year.

New Mexico’s under-24 population is expected to be around 550,000 by 2040 which represents a decline of about 20% over two decades.

“Births have been in a slow steady decline since 2008 with women having fewer children each year," Miller said."This trend should continue not only because women are having less children but also because we have less women of childbearing age every year.”

Beginning in 2020, the number of deaths in New Mexico began to exceed the number of births—a shift that arrived sooner than expected due to COVID-related deaths in 2020 and 2021. Mortality rates have since normalized but because there are more older New Mexicans every year, annual deaths will continue to rise and outpace births.

New Mexico’s population growth was fueled by migration for its first century of statehood; however, since 2012 domestic migration has been negative—more US residents move out than into it each year. Since 2020, there has been a net loss of about 6,000 people who moved to other states according to figures from the US Census.

The growth that New Mexico has experienced has come from international migration adding about twelve thousand people since 2020—not many but enough to offset declines in domestic migration and natural change (births minus deaths).

UNM-GPS demographers expect this trend to continue emphasizing that international migration will be key either for growth or staving off decline; however international migration heavily depends on federal immigration policy—a perennial hot-button issue.

Growth concentration is anticipated within metropolitan counties such as Bernalillo Sandoval Valencia Dona Ana Santa Fe—with San Juan being an exception projected for decline—and Eddy Lea counties within Permian Basin likely continuing higher rates although susceptible toward fossil fuel industry cycles whereas rural counties face significant declines particularly smaller ones under five thousand populations like Mora De Baca Hidalgo potentially facing forty percent losses or greater forthcoming decades.

An aging more urbanized populace isn't unique solely towards NM rather prevalent across twenty states exhibiting higher death rates compared birthrates similarly seen globally within countries like Japan South Korea Western Europe grappling alike challenges where demographic shifts significantly impact sectors spanning housing healthcare schooling taxation necessitating strategic planning alongside innovative approaches preparing forthcomingly altering societal structures

Population projections derive largely upon birth death migrations trends albeit fertility mortality predictability relatively stable unlike unpredictable migratory flux influencing projection outcomes variably

These latest projections sourced via detailed census data publicly released last year utilized widely among various local agencies businesses nonprofits reliant upon these impartial analyses offered through UNMGPS services###