A recent episode of the podcast “It’s (Probably) Not Rocket Science” examines why many individuals in Bernalillo County, New Mexico, are detained before trial but ultimately released without facing court proceedings. The episode, titled “Detained and Dismissed,” highlights findings from a study conducted by Paul Guerin, a criminologist at the University of New Mexico’s Institute for Social Research.
“It’s complicated,” said Guerin. “But what it turns out, in the simplest way, is that over a period of time, the system is unable to prosecute these cases successfully. So, then they’re either dismissed by the court or they’re nulled by the prosecutor, with the effect being the same. These people are held in jail, and when they’re dismissed or nullied, they’re released.”
The study reviewed more than 6,500 pretrial detention motions filed between 2017 and 2023. According to Guerin’s research published in October 2024, 43 percent of defendants who were deemed threats to public safety and detained pretrial had their cases dismissed or dropped by prosecutors.
“If the prosecutor is filing a pretrial detention motion, that means they believe this person is a risk to public safety,” Guerin said. “If the courts grant the motion, that reinforces that assessment. So, the question becomes, if these are the most serious cases, why are they not leading to convictions?”
New Mexico previously used a cash bail system where those unable to pay remained incarcerated until trial. After bail reform legislation passed in 2016, judges began using a public safety assessment tool for felony cases in Bernalillo County to help determine whether defendants should be released before trial.
“In Bernalillo County, the public safety assessment is only used for felony cases,” Guerin explained. “In other parts of the state, it’s applied to both misdemeanors and felonies.”
Guerin supports this approach: “It’s better than bail,” he said. “In my mind, it’s very difficult to challenge that. But people don’t believe it. So I think New Mexico is pretty forward-thinking in some of these things that they’ve done. And I think that public safety is enhanced and improved by using the public safety assessment as a piece of information for the judge.”
Some critics have argued that releasing defendants based on this assessment leads to new crimes; however, Guerin states his data does not support this concern.
“So if everyone who’s released pretrial—they account for about 4 percent of all new court cases filed,” he explained. “The vast majority of new cases being filed are not cases that involve people who have been released pretrial.”
He notes various reasons why charges may be dropped after detention—including plea deals across multiple cases or procedural errors such as discovery violations or missed deadlines.
“So can you put those reasons like on a continuum of good reasons to bad reasons,” Guerin said.
On average, defendants whose charges were dismissed spent about 120 days in jail prior to release; those convicted often waited over 250 days before resolution.
Housing inmates imposes significant costs on taxpayers—ranging from $125 to $170 per day depending on needs such as medical care—adding financial pressure beyond legal considerations.
“I’m not exactly sure of the daily cost but we know it’s expensive,” Guerin said. “So if you do the math…you multiply the 125 by the 120—that’s quite a few dollars.”
Guerin also highlighted personal impacts: prolonged incarceration can result in loss of employment and weakened family ties.
“If you’re held in jail that long you’re losing your job…You’re losing all sorts of connections that could help you be stable once you’re released back into community,” he said.
Lawmakers have debated policies known as “rebuttable presumptions,” which would keep certain accused individuals jailed unless proven otherwise—a move Guerin cautions against due to potential overreach.
“In our research we’ve shown that rebuttable presumptions would overpredict how many people are at risk,” he said. “They would hold large numbers of people in jail needlessly—people who would not go out and commit new crimes if released.”
Despite presenting his findings locally—including at meetings with Bernalillo County officials—Guerin says policy changes remain limited so far.
“One of challenges my career has been seeing information used for policy decisions…when information doesn’t meet people’s expectations it doesn’t get used,” he added.
His ongoing research now includes examining factors behind Albuquerque’s rising jail population and crime rates—considering geographic influences due to major interstate highways intersecting nearby.
“We’re a city at nexus of I-25 and I-40…Crime travels…vehicles drugs retail theft—it moves along these corridors,” he observed.
For policymakers considering improvements: “There are rules for how long cases should take—and we should be more efficient,” Guerin concluded. “If you’re going convict them convict them…Just don’t leave people sitting in jail for months without resolution.”
Listeners interested can find episodes at podcast.unm.edu or via Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
